A new version of GPCM is now available for download on our website.  The 9.20.1 release contains several important bug fixes:
 
Bug fixes in GPCM:

• The newly created interface had an extra Access feature turned on which was slowing down the linking – this has been fixed and linking is now back to normal (fast) speed.
• One of the updates was not being properly applied and caused the interface to fail when linking to older databases – 9.20.1 fixes this.
• In the Scenario Overview Exporter, LNG Utilization was not correctly displaying Exports.  It now displays Exports and Imports separately.

 

A new version of the GPCM database is now available for download from our website.

Below are some new features from the 12Q1base release:

• Near-term Henry Hub gas prices fell below $3/MMBtu in January 2012, and is not expected to rally above $4/MMBtu anytime soon.  The near-term Henry Hub price level is lower than the 11Q4 release, but will have a steeper contango pattern compared with the 11Q4 release as producers slow their drilling in dry gas plays.  The near-term real Henry Hub price (2012-15) is $2.40 in 2011$.  Prices gain in the mid-term (2016-20) to around $3.10 (2011$).
• Demand for gas in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors in the US has been updated for 12Q1base and is based on equations estimated using an updated database of EIA, BEA, NOAA, and Census Bureau statistics.  (See Appendix C.)
• Demand for gas in the residential and commercial sectors in Canada has been updated for 12Q1base.
• A new sector for natural gas vehicle demand has been added to 12Q1base.  NGV demand in the US is expected to grow from 100 mmcf/day in 2011 to about 4 bcf/day by 2035.
• Miscellaneous Electric Generation customers have been replaced with the actual Electric Utility or Gas and Electric Utility customers.  These customers can now deliver to Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and/or Electric Generation sectors rather than just Residential and Commercial as in the past.
• Transcontinental's Mid-Atlantic Connector (MAC), NE Supply Link, Bayonne Lateral, and the Rockaway Lateral expansion projects has been built into the 12Q1base database. 
• Demand Curves for LA Cameron LNG Exports have been created taking into account announcements that have been made.  BC Kitimat LNG has been increased to export more LNG and the Westcoast pipeline has been expanded to coincide.

 

A new version of GPCM is now available for download on our website.  The 9.20.0 release contains several enhancements and bug fixes:
 
New Features and Enhancements in GPCM:

• A major new feature was added to the reports: the Deliveries by Customer Area and Sector Report.
• An important enhancement was added to the data: the Crossborder Flows Report has been updated with new data.
• An important enhancement was added to the reports: the Crossborder Flows Report and exceptions have been enhanced.
• An important enhancement was added to the Demand form: Performance of the Make New  feature has been speeded up.
• A major enhancement was added to the Demand Case Builder: Added NGV demand to the demand case builder and reports.
• A major enhancement was added to the Storage Plan Builder: Improved ability to make storage plans.
• An enhancement was made in the UI:  Country and State tables can now be compared in Database Compare.

Bug fixes in GPCM:

• A critical defect was fixed in the Calibration: Loaded the wrong consumption value when Target Demands were Null.
• An important defect was fixed in the reports: Supplier Deliveries Summary computed the wrong number of days in leap years.
• An important defect was fixed in GDS: Demand slide did not correctly sum up the sectors when calculating customer flow.
• An important defect was fixed in GDS: Storage injections were blank on the zone slide.
• An important defect was fixed in the reports: Pipeline Revenue Report had errors.
• A major defect was fixed in GDS: printing caused crash in Powerpoint 2010.
• A minor defect was fixed in the Database tables: some needed relations were missing on result tables.
• A minor defect was fixed in the reports: market point input form filters were not working.

 

 

Los Angeles, California, March 2, 2012 – “The price impact of LNG exports is determined by how big and how fast they grow,” stated Dr. Robert Brooks. “Using RBAC’s GPCM^® model, we ran five different scenarios with export volumes from 0 to 6 bcf/day, all originating from LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast. We found that the average impact on price at the Henry Hub varied from $0.13 for 1 bcf/day to $1.33 for the extreme 6 bcf/day case.” 

 

A new version of GPCM is now available for download on our website.  The 9.19.4 release contains several enhancements and bug fixes:

New Features and Enhancements in GPCM:

• A minor enhancement was made to the LNG Export report - we improved the description field for graphs in the LNG Exports Report.
• An enhancement was made to the Supply Factors form: we added the ability to change the unit of measure for NGL from bbl per MMcf to Gallons per Mcf.

Bug fixes in GPCM:

• A critical defect was fixed in the Make New Demand form: we fixed a bug that was introduced in 9.19.3 that prevents the Demand Case Make New feature from working.
• The Default Supply Factor table has been updated with the latest from 11Q4.
• A important defect was fixed in the Case Definition form: We fixed the Rename Subcases feature - Double Click the Scenario name and choose "No" to use this feature.

For more information or assistance, please call RBAC Technical Support at 818-501-7300.

 

A new version of GPCM is now available for download on our website.  The 9.19.3 release contains several enhancements and bug fixes:
 
New Features and Enhancements in GPCM:

• An important enhancement was added to the Supply Case Builder: Created a comprehensive Import feature.  Can now import Supply Outlooks from other databases.
• Several enhancements were added to the Reports: Added the PADD aggregation to the Supplier Deliveries Summary, added LNG exports to the Scenario Overview Exporter, and created a new LNG Exports Summary in the LNG reports
• A major enhancement was added to the Error Handling: Added a check for missing subcases in a Scenario

Bug fixes in GPCM:

• A critical defect was fixed in the Supply Case Builder: Infrastructure merge failed with more recent databases
• A critical defect was fixed in the Demand Case Builder: Load fails if there is no "base" demand forecast
• An important defect was fixed in the Supply Case Builder: Pasting a column of 0 values into the Q fields triggers unhelpful messages
• An important defect was fixed in the Batch: Batch fails if you cancel one of the scenarios by closing the status window
• A major defect was fixed in the DB Compare: Comparison crashes if you try to compare WTI Table only
• A major defect was fixed in the Infrastructure Builders: Market point builder leaves map left/top, and lat/long fields blank, causing GDS to crash when run
• A major defect was fixed in the Reports: Scenario Overview Exporter - LNG Import report wrong when terminal also used for exports

For more information or assistance, please call RBAC Technical Support at 818-501-7300.
 
Aaron Brooks, GPCM Product Manager
Robert Brooks, Founder and President, RBAC
 
© RBAC, Inc., 2012, All Rights Reserved.  GPCM is a registered trademark owned by RT7K, LLC, and is used with its permission.

 

GPCM® Base Case Licensee:

A new version of the GPCM database is now available for download from our website.  Please find attached an Executive Summary.  The Full Documentation Package along with supporting Excel Spreadsheets will be available on the RBAC website by Friday, January 27.

Below are some new features from the 11Q4base release:

• The near-term Henry Hub price level is lower than the previous quarter's basecase results, driven in the most part by increased lower-48 production, especially shale, and stagnant demand.  Henry Hub will begin a more Contango pattern from 11Q3base as producers pull back in their drilling programs due to low prices, particularly in dry plays.  However, a concerted gain is not seen for several years as reserve overhang is absorbed.   The short to mid-term Henry Hub price (2012 - 2015) is $3.39 in 2011 real dollars.  Prices gain in the mid to longer-term (2016 - 2020) at around $3.78.
• Pennsylvania production has been split out into two regional pieces, East and West.  Marcellus Shale and Conventional production are found in both sub-state regions and CBM is allocated to the West portion.  This is especially important as the amount of liquids varies depending on the area and pipeline supply links also vary by region.
• Demand Curves for LA Sabine Pass LNG Exports have been updated taking into account contracts that have been announced.
• TransCanada rates for 2012 have been set to continue the approved 2011 rates (formerly Interim 2011 rates).  Rates beginning in 2013 have been set to the current proposed rates that TCPL has submitted to the NEB.  Historical rates have been re-allocated to reflect more detailed information in recent filings.
• Transcontinental's Atlantic Access project has been built into the 11Q4base release.

© RBAC, Inc., 2012, All Rights Reserved. GPCM is a registered trademark owned by RT7K, LLC, and is used with its permission.

 

Version 9.19.1 of GPCM is now available for download on our website.

• One of the new features is the complete mapping of the Market Points in the GDS Market Point report. You can now turn on or off any of the various points. In addition, we have added the ability for you to save and restore your own default set of points in addition to RBAC’s default set. This should be useful to you if you want to quickly switch to a set of points that you use often.
• The main purpose of this release is to handle problems with the Supply Case Builder's import and load routines. The builder was failing if the Supply was zero, and also failed to merge differences in the Supply Areas between the import case and the linked database. The most important fix was improving the accuracy of the imported Outlook. We found that the outlook was being improperly normalized when seasonality wasn’t flat so the quantities were wrong. This is now corrected and the import is much more accurate.
• This release also improves various error checking routines so that they correctly find any problems and alert the user before the case is loaded or the scenario is run.

Additional fixes and features are listed in the Release Notes, or for more information or assistance, please call RBAC Technical Support at 818-501-7300.

 

• The overall Henry Hub price level is lower, driven in the most part by significantly lower WTI and increased lower-48 production, especially shale. The short to mid-term Henry Hub price (2012 - 2014) is $3.73 in 2010 real dollars. Prices fall a bit more to around $3.60 in the mid to longer-term (2015 - 2020) before rising to $4.65 in 2035.
• Although oil prices grew substantially after the 1990s, that growth has topped out since 2008. NYMEX futures in mid-October expect little or no growth in WTI prices through the end of the decade. This implies that WTI prices in constant dollars would fall. Prospects for a sustained recovery in real oil prices are eroding because of growing development of unconventional oil resources (e.g., shale and oil sands) and horizontal drilling. The production outlook indicates that North American demand on world crude supply will erode, especially after 2015. As technologies spread from North America, it is likely that world crude supply should remain loose relative to world oil demand outside of singular events for some time. We have aggregated these views into our current Supply and Demand Forecast Builder with WTI at $90.00 (in 2010 real dollars) for the remainder of 2011, $83.00 for 2012, $82.00 for 2013, $81.00 for 2014 and $80.00 starting in 2015 going forward. We have also changed the OGPR (Oil Gas Price Ratio) to 21 for 2011 and 19 from 2012 forward to reflect more recent trends in oil and gas prices.
• Strong shale production is dampening winter peaking in some cases and the reverse flows from Marcellus into Canada are displacing Canadian imports into the US. US exports into Mexico are increasing as Eagle Ford shale production grows. Production in the Permian basin is being re-directed from the Dallas and Houston markets to market areas in the west and Mexico.
• Texas Railroad District 1 has been split out into two supply areas, Permian and Gulf Coast, to more accurately reflect distribution to the proper basin group and delivery to the correct pipelines.
• Demand Curves for LA Sabine Pass LNG Exports have been updated.
• TransCanada rates have been left at the interim NEB-filed rates from earlier this year. New filings are occurring in September and October 2011 and the outcome will be reflected in the 11Q4base release.
• Added new zones to Leidy path of Transcontinental pipeline to more clearly display the line's total capacity. Along with updating the rates and fuels on many pipelines, the Long-Haul adjustments for Transco were affected. Added supply links to reflect the Marcellus Shale supply that is being picked up by the Leidy Line zones.

 

• We have added new Market Point coordinates to GDS – all of the Market Points are now available and you can turn any of them on or off as you like. You can also now save your own default selections in addition to RBAC’s default selection.
• We’ve sped up Make New Supply and Make New Demand features of the Supply and Demand forms. Some technical changes to the tables and queries behind the scenes have improved the speed of these two functions – this will enable you to make large changes with hundreds or thousands of adders or multipliers relatively quickly.

Bug fixes:

• We’ve fixed a defect in the Database Compare program that caused a crash if you tried to compare all infrastructure or just Target Supply.
• We’ve fixed a defect in the Customer Shares form that prevented the user from pasting shares in Datasheet view.
• We’ve fixed a defect in the Supplier Delivery Detail graph that caused the units to show up as MMCF when you wanted MMCF/day.
• We’ve fixed a defect in the Supply Case Builder that was causing the Update Prices function to incorrectly updates all of your (in development) supply cases.

Recap:

 

In case you missed it in the earlier release announcement, the most important new feature from the last release is a pair of reports that forecast cross border flows. These two reports are aggregated by pipeline or by state, and will help you determine how gas will likely flow across state borders for each pipeline and in aggregate. The report is currently limited to net flow calculations – meaning it will not show the ins and outs simultaneously between two states on a given pipeline. Also, you may find that you need to handle disconnects in your own database. First you need to run the report; you can turn it on in the new GPCM Launch form (so that it runs with your Scenario execution), or recompute it directly (on Scenarios already finished), and then review the exceptions. Exceptions indicate that a problem exists in the Pipe-state link data. This can be one of two main types of problem: the link is missing from the data, or the infrastructure link (intx, storage, supply or demand) actually has the wrong state. You can find the list of pipe-state link data in the Data Inputs under Pipeline Model.

 

Additional fixes and features are listed in the Release Notes, or for more information or assistance, please call RBAC Technical Support at 818-501-7300.

 

 

A new version of GPCM is now available for download on our website.  The 9.17.1 release contains several important new features, enhancements and bug fixes in GPCM and GDS.

 

Critical Bug fix: 

Enhancements in GPCM & GDS: 

For more information or for assistance, please call RBAC technical support at 818-501-7300.

 

• The Henry Hub price curve for 11Q1base2 is lower than the previous quarter’s base case results. The lower Henry Hub price is a result of a higher shale production forecast which in turn is due to more shale production data becoming available, especially in Pennsylvania. Note: An incorrect implementation of our economic forecast which reduced our demand forecast was found in the original 11Q1base database released last week. This has been corrected in the 11Q1base2 database, resulting in more reasonable demand and price levels about 5% higher than 11Q1base.
• LDC demand has been broken out by RES (Residential) and COM (Commercial). Each LDC customer is now able to deliver to both RES and COM customers. In the future they will be able to deliver gas to all actual end use sectors as inferred from EIA Form 176 for US companies and similar sources for Canada and Mexico.
• Seasonality was removed from the BC Kitimat LNG Export Demand to better reflect dispatching from a liquefaction facility. Planned expansions on Southern Crossing in BC and TCPL GTN in Oregon partially mitigate the reduced availability of gas from BC due to these exports, but not fully. Winter price spiking in BC, WA, and OR is expected in out years without further expansions to provide more supply from AB and the Rockies.
• Modeled LNG exports from the Gulf Coast. Created Demand Curves for LA Sabine Pass LNG Export Demand along with new Demand Links off of the LNG Sabine Pass Header pipeline. Similar modeling can be done for other potential LNG export terminals in the Gulf in subsequent quarters, dependent on actual real world contracts and permitting.
• A 6-month short-term weather forecast based on NOAA forecasts has been incorporated into the demand curves for the first six months of the forecast period. The weather assumptions used to build the demand curves in GPCM are based on 30-year average weather. Previously, that 30-year period was from 1971 through 2000. Beginning with 11Q1base it is 1981 through 2010.
  

 

New Features in GDS:

Enhancements in GPCM:

• GPCM has a new Demand model paradigm – Pipeline customers (LDCs) may now deliver to multiple Sectors. You can convert your reference case to the new format, including separating your LDC demand into RES and COM demand, using the Convert function on the Customer Form. Note: convert only works on databases whose scenario(s) haven’t yet been run.
• The solver now features improved data precision and runtime speed – we’ve cut about 700-1000 seconds off of the run, about 10-15% depending on the speed of your machine.

Bug fixes:

• The Storage Plan builder has been corrected for Canadian storage plans.
• The Supply form has been improved as well – it no longer takes a very long time to paste in large numbers of supply records.

There are several more important bug fixes in GPCM and GDS that you can read about in the release notes.

 

For more information or for assistance, please call RBAC technical support at 818-501-7300.