GPCM® Peak Daily Demand Analyzer™ Brief

The GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer is based on the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™, the most widely used tool for developing forecasts and scenarios for North American natural gas flows, price and basis.  The Demand Analyzer is used to evaluate the capability of the North American natural gas delivery system to meet peak day loads under a variety of conditions, primarily very hot or very cold weather, and scheduled events such as discrete LNG tanker arrivals or departures and new pipeline or pipeline expansion startups.  The system predicts the directionality and approximate magnitude of price impacts of such conditions and events.

Pipeline Utilization Map

This map is a forward looking snapshot of utilization of the pipeline system at a specific point in time.  Viewing reports on which this map was based will give insight to power system and pipeline operators to identify requirements for additional pipeline capacity. Figure courtesy of Levitan & Associates, Inc.

RBAC’s base case database provides the detail and transparency licensees need without sacrificing speed.  The system provides the tools users need for flexible scenario design.  Custom scenarios can span multiple months or as little as a single day at the user’s discretion.  

Analysts and planners can select from a complete set of useful reports which are exportable to MS Excel and other industry standard formats.  

Sophisticated and powerful, the GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer is a modeling system that analysts can use to multiply the value of their natural gas knowledge to the benefit of their company and clients.  We will work directly with your team to execute a clear and precise integration of the system into your firm.  Upon implementation, your firm will be up and running within a few days.

What type of questions can you answer using the GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer?

  • Given a certain weather condition will we be able to meet our peak day load?
  • Where are the potential choke points in the system that could cut off supply?
  • How will new infrastructure limitations affect supply/demand imbalance?
  • Do we have enough gas in storage to meet our demand?
  • Should we acquire capacity in new gas supply infrastructure?

Using the Demand Analyzer analysts can identify the effects of such events including constraints that could result in price spiking and/or supply challenges.  

Power system operators and strategic planners have successfully used these tools to pinpoint potential outages or opportunities that arise where expansions are warranted.  

Scenario runs consists of forecasts of the following items:

  • Production and spot market prices by region and play
  • Pipeline receipts from producers by zone
  • Pipeline flows and utilization
  • Transfers between pipelines at interconnects
  • Injections, withdrawals, and working gas in storage by field
  • Deliveries by pipelines to LDC’s, utilities, and industrial customers
  • Gas supply available to each customer in each region
  • Market clearing prices in each supply and demand region
  • Receipt and delivery price in each pipeline zone
  • Capacity release market prices

The GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer is used to better understand the potential impact that constraints in the natural gas grid have on the electric power market.

The Demand Analyzer can be integrated with the industry standard monthly GPCM® Natural Gas Market Forecasting System and power market models such as Aurora, Promod, and MAPS using GPCM-PMI™ (Power Model Interface). 

With the right combination of these tool sets, you will get the most in-depth understanding of the market that was never before available until now.

For additional information about the GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer™ and any other RBAC product, contact James Brooks directly at (281) 506-0588 ext. 126.

© 2021 RBAC, Inc. All rights reserved.  GPCM, GPCM Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG, GPCM Peak Daily Demand Analyzer and GPCM-PMI  are trademarks of RT7K, LLC and are used with its permission.