North American natural gas markets are entering a period of rapid change and heightened uncertainty. From shifting pipeline flows to the rising influence of LNG exports and surging data center demand, market participants face new challenges in forecasting prices, infrastructure needs, and supply dynamics. RBAC’s Fall Webinar, From Pipelines to Power: Navigating Gas Market Uncertainty, brought together experts to share insights from the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ and G2M2® Global Gas Market Simulator.
LNG Exports and Infrastructure Developments
One of the central themes of the discussion was the rapid growth of LNG exports. North America is expected to increase export capacity significantly, with modeled demand rising from ~17 Bcf/d today to as high as 30 Bcf/d in the coming years. This expansion is reshaping pipeline flows, pricing dynamics, and the utilization of key basins. Canada is also playing an increasingly important role, with new LNG capacity in Western Canada driving additional upstream supply. These developments emphasize the importance of modeling infrastructure timing and constraints to understand future market conditions.
Data Centers and Power Sector Demand
Another emerging force highlighted was the role of artificial intelligence and data centers in driving electricity demand. Virginia, already home to the largest concentration of data centers globally, is expected to see natural gas demand rise significantly as new facilities come online. Using GPCM, RBAC analyzed scenarios ranging from moderate to unconstrained growth, finding that Virginia’s gas demand for power could more than double, with ripple effects across Appalachian supply and regional pricing. Transco Zone 5 prices in particular may see stronger seasonal volatility as cooling demand intensifies during summer peaks.
Supply Outlook and Basin Dynamics
While aggregate U.S. supply growth between quarterly releases has been relatively steady, basin-level differences tell a more nuanced story. The Permian Basin remains a key driver, though questions remain about the impact of crude oil prices on associated gas production. The Haynesville also faces uncertainty regarding its supply elasticity—how quickly it can respond to price signals. Canadian supply growth has accelerated, particularly due to LNG-linked demand in Western Canada, which is calling for higher production.
Global Market Connections
Through the integration of GPCM with the G2M2 Global Gas Model, RBAC evaluates how international LNG developments feed back into North American markets. Global competition from Qatar, Australia, and emerging African projects could shape utilization rates for U.S. terminals. Meanwhile, European and Asian demand trajectories remain critical in determining long-term export flows. This global-to-local modeling approach enables market participants to test scenarios for resilience and opportunity.
Navigating the Road Ahead
The webinar underscored the complexity and interdependence of today’s natural gas markets. With LNG exports, power sector shifts, and new infrastructure developments reshaping the landscape, robust scenario modeling is more important than ever. RBAC’s GPCM and G2M2 tools provide the granularity and flexibility needed to anticipate how supply, demand, and prices may evolve—helping market participants make informed decisions in an uncertain future.
We recommend listening to the entire conversation as it is full of incredible insights into the future of natural gas and LNG as well as how our market simulation tools can assist you in forecasting these volatile markets. Click here and fill out a short survey and you will automatically be emailed a link to the webinar recording.
If you any questions about the content covered in the webinar or interest in a demonstration of our market simulation tools? Contact us today by clicking here.
RBAC, Inc. has been the leading provider of market fundamental analysis tools used by the energy industry and related government agencies for over two decades. The GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ is the most widely used natural gas market modeling system in North America. RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ has been instrumental in understanding evolving global gas and LNG dynamics and is vital in fully understanding the interrelationship between the North American and global gas markets.
