Gas Market Simulator Case Studies
This study was a collaboration between RBAC and Refinitiv to produce a forecast for the 2021/2022 winter season. the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team used 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
This study was conducted to evaluate the effects on delivery of crude oil and natural gas to the country in the case a hurricane shuts down the Port Fourchon which services over 90% of the Gulf of Mexico’s deepwater oil production and furnishes 16 to 18 percent of the US oil supply.
This was a study of the assumed response of the North American natural gas industry to high demand during the 2015 and 2030 winter seasons. These high-demand scenarios were simulated both with and without the loss (due to freezing) of a fraction of Appalachia shale gas wells in January 2015 and 2030 that cause a loss of approximately 3% of total national production.
Case Study #1: Analysis of Maryland’s Energy Options for the Future.
This was an analysis of the state of Maryland’s options to meet their long-term energy requirements. This analysis compares, how each generation, transmission, or demand-side option compares on a present value basis to the total cost of serving Maryland’s electricity load under business-as-usual conditions.
Case Study #2: MISO Gas-Electric Planning.
This was a presentation from MISO that details how they are adapting to increased dependence on natural gas for power generation and what tools they are using to better assess the relationship between these two markets.
This study was an assessment of a proposed LNG export facility in Nova Scotia. It was made to assess the regional and national market price impact of exporting 1.2 bcfd of U.S. or Canadian gas supplies from 2019 to 2049.
This study was done in support of the creation of a long-term capacity expansion plan. The purpose of this study was to identify which pipelines the new units in the plan would interconnect and create a gas forecast with the expansion in mind.
This document highlights a high-level discussion of NIPSCO’s ongoing generation transition plan. This meeting contained several presentations regarding fundamental natural gas forecasting and key drivers of natural gas pricing. GPCM licensee, Charles River Associates, answered the question, “How do you know whether you can transport gas during a peak event – how do you gut check that? We also use GPCM (Gas Pipeline Competition Model) to assess transportation and local gas basis. … we check things through GPCM.”
This is a blog article from S&P Global’s, Edward Kelly, who at the time was the Managing Director for Americas Gas and Power. The blog covers production in the Permian Basin and how pipeline constraints affect production, GPCM was used to estimate pipeline constraints.
This document is S&P Global’s Methodology and Specifications Guide for Global M2M Gas Quantitatively Modeled Forward Curves. GPCM is mentioned in a section detailing that it is utilized for the purpose of extending curves beyond available market data, in this case GPCM is used to forecast the next 20 years.
Case Study #1: America’s New Energy Future.
This report addresses the implications of unconventional oil and natural gas for the broader US economy, including increases in capital expenditures, jobs, economic value added, and government revenues. GPCM was used in conjunction with AURORA to assess the production outlook in the context of overall market supply and demand.