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GPCM® Base Case Briefing

GPCM® is the most widely used tool for developing forecasts and scenarios for North American natural gas flows, price and basis. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas production, pipeline and storage utilization, deliveries and price at points throughout the North American gas market in support of high quality analyses and improved decision making.

The quarterly updates of the GPCM Base Case are produced by RBAC’s experienced staff of expert researchers and energy industry veterans using the industry standard GPCM natural gas modeling system. Each update incorporates explicit assumptions for future weather, economic growth, world oil price, and energy industry developments including new pipelines and storage projects and new demand centers such as natural gas vehicles, petrochemical facilities and gas-to-liquids plants.

Quarterly GPCM Database Includes:

  • Network flow model of North America gas market
  • Base case model with quarterly updates
  • Covers Alaska, Canada, US Lower 48, Mexico, LNG Imp/Exp
    • 89 supply area
    • 5 supply types (Shale, CBM, Conv. (inc. tight sands), SNG, LNG)
    • 12 shale plays (Barnett, Haynesville, Marcellus, Eagle Ford, etc.)
      22 LNG terminals (import and export)
    • 208 pipelines (interstate, intrastate, GOM gathering)
    • 443 storage areas
    • 113 demand areas
    • 5 demand sectors (RES, COM, IND, ELC, VEH)
    • 94 market points (Gas Daily / ICE)
  • Monthly time frame
  • Computes natural gas supply, demand, prices, basis, pipeline flows, storage activity
    • Also computes estimated NGL production
  • Calibrate from January 2006 through the end of the most recent quarter
  • Forecasts from the current quarter through the end of 2040
  • Regional gas supply forecasts
  • State level demand regressions and outlooks (RES, COM, IND, ELC)
  • VEH demand model
  • Pipeline zones, links, interconnects, capacities, costs
  • Storage field capacities, costs, connecting pipelines
  • LNG terminal capacities, costs, connecting pipelines
  • RBACNetSolve algorithm computes competitive market clearing solution with forecasts for:
    • Field prices
    • Market prices
    • Pipeline flows and values
    • Storage injections, withdrawals, levels and values
    • LNG import/export volumes and spot prices

For additional information about GPCM® and any other RBAC product, contact James Brooks directly at (281) 506-0588 ext. 126.

© 2016 RBAC, Inc. All rights reserved.  GPCM is a registered trademark of RT7K, LLC and is used with its permission.