Do Energy Security and Economics “Trump” All?
Back in 2018 at the United Nations General Assembly, then United States President Donald Trump cautioned, “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if
California Energy Prices – When Things Break
California is certainly a state of extremes. It experienced extreme drought (leading to a low hydro year) and had extensive flooding later in the same
Could Mexican Natural Gas Infrastructure have prevented the disastrous impacts of Winter Storm Uri?
At the recent Mexico Infrastructure Projects Forum in Monterrey, Mexico, both government and private sector attendees came together to voice their concerns over deficiencies of
Natural Gas Prices are Down, But for How Long?
What Goes Up Must Come Down… 2022 was a turbulent time for natural gas prices, not only in Europe, but in North America as well.
LNG Flow Scenarios Under Energy Transition
The natural gas market has been at a critical moment of change in recent years. This study first highlights the trends, uncertainties, and challenges faced
What do the Cowboys and Lower 48 Natural Gas Production have in Common?
Hard Work. Consistent, diligent, hard work (along with a little help from your friends) makes winning look easy. The American Football Cowboys’ running back tandem,
On Climate and Energy, The British Do Have Something to Smile About
The UK has continued to reduce its carbon emissions both total and per capita since 1971. Continuously. Even with an increasing population with higher tech
The Next Energy Crisis No One Is Talking About
In my past few articles, I have written about the energy transition, lack of cooperation and mixed messages from regulatory bodies, as well as energy
Dr. Brooks to speak at America’s Natural Gas Conference
Dr. Robert Brooks will speak at America’s Natural Gas conference sponsored by Hart Energy, presenting “Weather and Whether Russia,” the gas outlook and the future
LNG Exporters Grip with Uncertainty Over Chinese LNG Demand
Western players have been watching intently as China does a balancing act—importing more Russian gas via pipeline, reselling surplus LNG at high prices on the
Can Mountain Valley Pipeline Reduce Inflation
H.R.5376 or The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 seems to be all anyone can talk about these days. This broad-ranging legislation touches everything from healthcare
Out of Chaos – Finding Opportunity in a Volatile Gas Market
Ongoing chaos seems to have become the new normal: extreme temperatures rolling through the lower 48 United States, trade disputes with Mexico, LNG Plant explosions
Haste Makes Turmoil and Misery
Photos on Unsplash and uncredited by Robert Brooks, Founder RBAC Inc. assisted by Cyrus Brooks, RBAC Inc. We may hear the words “energy transition” much
Can we ever learn from history?
Back in 2015, RBAC’s Founder, Dr. Robert Brooks Ph.D. spoke at the World Gas Conference in Paris on the relationship between gas and power markets
Forecasting Monthly Price Spreads at Natural Gas Trading Hubs
Forecasting Monthly Price Spreads at Natural Gas Trading Hubs by Robert Brooks, Ph.D. and Ning Lin Ph.D. Summary/Conclusions: Since 2020, RBAC, Inc., and Refinitiv,
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
We are big believers that in life the only constant is change. The constantly changing dynamics of the energy industry is a great example of this.
Trends in LNG Contracting and Why They Matter
by G2M2 Team and Jane Li, Zion Energy Consulting Market Disruption Recent events in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have sent shock waves through the global gas market.
Can Energy Security be Achieved Under the New FERC Policy?
Amidst a global energy crisis, geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlight more than ever the need for energy security. Security from undersupply and
A Political Tune Full of Flat Notes
Market Simulation Illuminates Neglected Northeast Energy Needs Marcellus. A Natural gas deposit (a “shale play”) running through Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and especially West Virginia, Ohio,
New England’s Energy Crisis
Economic Fact vs. Political Fiction How can we reduce natural gas prices? What would happen if liquified natural gas (LNG) exports were banned? What should
Japan’s LNG Energy Security Has a Cost: Estimating the Price of Supply Diversity
Cutting CO2 emissions and decarbonization was supposed to be the main topic in global LNG markets last year. Instead, energy security has come again front
For a Successful Energy Transition, “You Need to Learn to Walk Before You Can Run”
It is said the proverb, “You need to learn to walk before you can run,” dates back to the 15th century and it is as
China’s 2021 LNG Imports increase, replaces world’s former top buyer Japan
In RBAC’s article published in April 2021 (https://rbac.com/chinas-lng-imports-outlook-can-the-united-states-capture-more/), RBAC’s global gas team analyzed China’s LNG imports market and predicted that the United States would play
Europe without Russian Natural Gas. What Happens to Global LNG Trade?
With tensions escalating higher between Moscow and Kiev, Europeans have been looking for alternative sources of LNG to not only address the current energy crisis
It’s a New Year, but is it Really “Auld Lang Syne”?
Not quite a month ago, as midnight struck, the banging of pots and pans, shooting of fireworks and however else one might ring in the
What if we turned off nuclear and fossil fuels tomorrow?
Could we turn off coal, nuclear and gas and just go with wind, solar and hydro, tomorrow? What would happen? It reminds me of the
It’s Not Just the Size of Your Carbon Footprint
Concerns about Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, specifically carbon emissions, are not new. They’ve been around for decades with focus really starting in the 1990s, and
When Opportunity Knocks, Answer the Door
For independent natural gas producers, the saying “When opportunity knocks, answer the door.” has never been truer. Despite a high natural gas price environment, there
Weathering a Storm of Uncertainty: Refinitiv-RBAC 2021 Short-Term Global Gas and LNG Market Forecast
Background: When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may
Tight Markets and Tight Gas: “When will we fully recover?”
Global natural gas markets are currently ‘tight’ and expected to remain so in the near term, even with rebounds in tight gas supply basins. The
A Look at China’s Natural Gas Imports in the First Half of 2021
In April, RBAC, Inc. published “China’s LNG imports Outlook: Can the United States Capture More of the Market?” outlining the potential for the United States
In Today’s Energy Transition, Best Not Fly Blind
In 1929 Edwin Albert Link, finding that pilot lessons were too expensive, built the very first full flight simulator in his father’s basement. He named
Cyber Chaos: How significant would a prolonged attack be?
On May 7th, 2021, the Colonial refined product pipeline, which delivers approximately 45% of the gasoline and jet fuel consumed by the Southeast and eastern
The Dakota Access Pipeline Continues Operation for Now
What are the market impacts of a shut down? Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) could still be shut down around March 2022 pending the
No Pain, No Gain: Can the US E&P Sector Bulk Back Up?
“No pain, no gain” is a saying often heard from gym rats. The motto means if you want to make gains, advance, get stronger, and
China’s LNG imports Outlook: Can the United States Capture More of the Market?
The Asian natural gas market has always been a strong demand market. China has witnessed tremendous growth of 35% over the past few years, from
GOATs and ERCOT
John Collins and Scott McKenna, RBAC, Inc. Tom Brady may have solidified his status as NFL’s “GOAT” – Greatest Of All Time – Quarterback with
India’s Resounding Resilience in LNG Imports
Even though COVID-19 related demand reductions heavily impacted Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) demand across the world, India experienced a rise in LNG and overall demand
Dueling Models: Iterative Gas/Power Modeling for Realistic Spark Spread
As the industry transitioned away from coal to gas, it became clearer the importance of having a better understanding of the new integrated gas and
Severe Hangover Cure = Time, Prudency, and Plenty of Liquids
It may seem hard to imagine that almost one year ago, Covid-19 was just hitting newswires and was believed to be not much more of
Winter Asia LNG price creates a big bang and what do we learn?
There are two fundamental reasons for such market dynamic for Northeast Asia market: First, Asia has large seasonal swings of demand with high dependency of
Refinitiv-RBAC 2020 Winter Global Gas Balance Forecast
Facing the unprecedented uncertainties in 2020, Refinitiv and RBAC team jointly developed a 24-month forecast, exploring the interconnection between regional markets from both fundamental drivers
“Are We There Yet?” RBAC’s 20Q3 Natural Gas Market Outlook Takes a Road Trip Through Supply/Demand Balances
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to dramatic shifts in lifestyles, business operations and energy utilization. With the implementation of mandated lockdowns, unemployment increased substantially as
Hurricane Proof part 2 – How about LNG Facilities?
Red Sky at Night, Sailor’s DelightRed Sky in Morning, Sailor’s Warning Just a few weeks ago, RBAC published “Has Shale Production made us Hurricane-proof?” which
Has Shale Production made us Hurricane-proof?
In 2005 two major hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, hit the Gulf with devastating consequences to residents and regional energy infrastructure. The resulting shut-ins, temporary and
Methane vs Hydrogen vs CH4-H2 Mixes
It’s useful to get an idea of the relative size of markets for commodities of interest and their products (and byproducts). What’s hot now and
A Curse or a Blessing? RBAC’s 20Q2 Natural Gas Market Outlook Speaks Volumes
May you live in interesting times. Wikipedia suggests this is “an English expression that purports to a translation of a traditional Chinese curse”; seemingly a
Supreme Court of the United States Rules on Atlantic Coast Pipeline Case
On June 15, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court in a 7-2 ruling reversed and remanded the 4th Circuit Court decision in Atlantic Coast Pipeline LLC
Can an Oil Price Boomerang Hit Waha?
Impacts of the Pandemic RBAC’s recent “Natural Gas Immunity to COVID-19?” article highlighted that the pandemic’s impact to energy consumption was more acute in the
Natural Gas Immunity to COVID-19? How a New Normal in the Natural Gas Markets May Appear
The ongoing pandemic has impacted society in drastic ways. Even as governments around the world experiment with easing lockdown restrictions, a sense of normalcy may
In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Lion: RBAC’s 20Q1 Outlook
Occasionally, what appear to be relatively insignificant events metamorphosize into shockingly strong market impacting chaos. The events over the last three months truly reflect the
COVID-19 Impact on Natural Gas in Europe
In the 2009 global recession, European natural gas demand fell about 2% with the Covid-19 global pandemic, 2020 looks to have an even greater impact
Crude Oil Craziness: Will Natural Gas Prices Follow Suit?
“Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes….”, “Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together…. mass hysteria!” Oh, and crude oil goes negative…no this isn’t Ghostbusters, but
COVID-19: The Crash and Recovery in Asia
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the City of Wuhan has been under strict quarantine since January 23. With current signs of improvement of the situation
Where Are We and What is a Handbasket
Co-written by: Scott McKenna, Director, Global Energy Analysis, RBAC, Inc When electronic trading opened on Sunday night, March 8th, all hell broke loose for WTI
China Sneezes, Henry Hub Catches a Cold
Proximity is the key ingredient in many facets of life — whom you marry, friends you make and keep, your first job — are just
Hindsight is 20/20: What Happened to the Northeast When Pipelines Couldn’t Be Built?
The New England natural gas market has been subjected to winter price spikes for over a decade, and this trend appears likely to persist. Throughout
Impacts on LNG Imports and Natural Gas Consumption Due to the Coronavirus in China
Dr. Ning Lin, Jiaxin Yang and Birdy Chen, RBAC, Inc. In January 2020 the Coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, created a significant amount of uncertainty
It Takes Two to Tango – Supply Growth is Slowing but Demand is Needed to Revive Prices
In RBAC’s 2019 Quarter 4 gas market outlook (19Q4base), using the GPCM® Natural Gas Market Forecasting System™, a key focus in the near-term forecast is
The Future of Natural Gas in China, Gulf and India: Opportunities and Challenges
According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the demand of natural gas in the Gulf countries will have a growth in 75% from now
China’s Strategic Need to Open Doors for Foreign Investment in Upstream EP
Per Xinhua news agency, on Jan. 9, 2020, China’s Ministry of Mineral Resources announced today the opening of exploration and production to private investment. Domestic
A Reality Check in the Wave of LNG Projects
As LNG trade becomes the fastest-growing segment of global gas and fuels much enthusiasm in investing in LNG facilities, it also presents a new concern
How big is the deal – Impact of Trade War on LNG between the US and China
This is the first post in my mini-series of “track what matters” – a knowledge share for natural gas market analysis crowd. In this post,
Who provides the greatest value for US LNG – A deep dive into LNG imports for Asia
I shared with you the Asian gas balance chart last week and promised to continue this story. Here this goes. When we look into LNG
Last week Bloomberg on MSN glibly reported that the Trump administration had conceded defeat in its effort to stop Russia’s Nordstream 2 pipeline. According to
Will the “Rusty Patched Bumble Bee” Sting Dominion’s Atlantic Coast Pipeline?
Strange things can happen when natural gas pipeline companies move forward with final investment decisions (FID) and pipeline construction, even after they have received FERC
Are Natural Gas Write-Downs a Temporary or Long-Term Phenomenon?
There is a lot at stake in the current natural gas environment that impact not only the natural gas players but the entire energy industry.
Where will China get its future LNG and why?
Risks and Opportunities for China in the Evolving Global Market for Natural Gas Dr. Robert Brooks, Founder, RBAC, Inc. To achieve the economic and environmental
RBAC’s Role in Bringing Energy to a Billion People Still in the Dark
“The mission of RBAC is to contribute to the prosperity of mankind through improvements in the quality and ethics of economic decisions made by the
How Players Can Score in the Global Natural Gas Arena
Football is a multi-billion dollar global industry. It is a game of technical skills, IQ and athleticism. These are the reasons it has such a
Simulation and Optimization Overview
“Simulation” and “Optimization” are terms employed by researchers and analysts who are attempting to learn something about natural or human systems by building and executing
Geopolitics Vs. Economics
Will North America Miss the Boat on LNG Exports? James Brooks, RBAC Inc., July 15, 2015 With the recent shale revolution in North America, the potential
I hate to ruin your day, but oil prices are about to drop to $30
Despite all indicators of oil prices making a recovery albeit slow, they are actually going to drop down into the $30 range. Am I crazy?
How to Knock a Curve Ball Out of the Park
Positioning your feet in the Natural Gas Market James Brooks, RBAC Inc., May 4, 2015 Baseball is considered one of America’s greatest pastimes. It is
RBAC Foreshadowed Resurgence in GTLs
While the jump in gas-fired generation demand in 2012 has made headlines due to low natural gas prices versus coal feed-stocks, the industry has been
North America LNG Exports to Eastern Hemisphere An Emerging Sea Change in World Gas Prices
However, since 2007, North American gas production has grown strongly, and is on a pace to approach 31 Tcf in 2012. This reflects rapidly expanding
A Wind from the Northeast: Major Changes Coming in Gas Market Pricing
Washington D.C., August 22, 2012 – “In 2011, annual gas production in the Appalachian Basin tested 2 Tcf, and is approaching 3 Tcf in 2012.
New Natural Gas Infrastructure: How Much and Where?
The natural gas industry finds itself in a new era of natural gas pipeline development. Shale gas has created a new paradigm. Some shale production
Allocation of Natural Gas in Time of Shortage:
A Mathematical Programming Model of the Production, Transmission, and Demand for Natural Gas under Federal Power Commission Regulation Dr. Robert E. Brooks, RBAC, Inc. Submitted
Other Publications by RBAC Inc.
“Optimizing Complex Natural Gas Models”, presented at the INFORMS National Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, April 1995 “GRIDNET Natural Gas Operations Optimizing System”, with C.P. Neill,