EMPOWER YOUR GAS AND LNG MARKET ANALYSIS
Today, you are expected to produce an accurate natural gas and LNG market forecast and analysis for an ever more complex and volatile market.
Gone are the days, of three-dollar-forever natural gas prices, or of isolated areas unaffected by regional or global markets. Now energy transition policies, geo-political and weather events must also be considered when producing your forecasts.
Simple spreadsheet models, or “black box” forecasts or tools are no longer adequate.
You need a tool that embraces all these factors with the flexibility and transparency that gives you confidence in the results, enabling you to see where the market can go under a variety of conditions.
You need GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™.
Create Custom Scenarios
Import Own Assumptions
Fully Transparent Database
Forecasts using GPCM can run from as few as several months to as many as 30 years into the future. Functions and capabilities within GPCM are continually expanded and improved to anticipate the needs of the industry or rapidly respond to user requests.
Each licensee creates their own Reference Case and alternative scenarios based on their own assumptions to support the market analyses needed for their unique market position, goals and purposes.
RBAC’s base case database is completely transparent, allowing users to easily input their own proprietary assumptions into the database creating a reference case from which they can easily generate a wide variety of market simulation scenarios.
Get certainty and find opportunities. Schedule a demo today.
Frequently Asked Questions
GPCM simulates historical and future natural gas industry activity. Historical simulations are used to help calibrate GPCM for use in forecasting future market conditions. Analysts use simulations for scenario analysis and forecasts for North American gas flows, price and basis.
It is a complete system of interrelated models for simulating gas production, pipeline and storage capacity utilization, deliveries to LDCs, utilities, and industrial consumers, as well as commodity price at points throughout the North American market. GPCM’s purpose is high-quality market analysis in support of investment decisions which help you achieve your goals and that of your company or organization.
- M&A Strategy: Simulate utilization levels of new or acquired pipelines or create valuations for storage assets.
- Corporate Strategy: Create long-term simulations to model future revenues from current business activities.
- Energy Transition Strategy: Identify under-utilized pipeline assets and possibly convert natural gas/oil pipelines to CO2 or Hydrogen.
- Risk Analysis: Evaluate potential projects being considered or partially under development to determine viability to potentially save further expenditures into an unviable project.
- Portfolio Optimization: Understand how gas flows from production assets to premium priced markets and value open capacity.
- Asset Valuation: Understanding how pipelines are utilized and set rates to recoup costs.
- Base scenario using existing pipeline tariffs, capacities, and normal weather.
- Severe winter or mild winter demand cases
- New import/export pipelines between the US and Canada and US and Mexico
- Expansions or tariff changes on existing pipelines.
- Proposed pipeline projects for new or growing supply sources to markets.
- Proposed LNG import/export terminals and capacity expansions.
- Proposed gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants.
- Increases or decreases of production capacity in traditional areas.
- New storage fields or increases in existing storage capacity.
- Increasing demand in the gas-fired generation sector
- Growing natural gas demand in the transportation sector
- Changes in demand due to slowing or rising economic growth rate.
- Production and spot market prices by region and play.
- Pipeline receipts from producers by zone.
- Pipeline flows and utilization
- Transfers between pipelines at interconnects
- Injections, withdrawals, and working gas in storage by field.
- Deliveries by pipelines to LDC’s, utilities, and industrial customers
- Gas supply available to each customer in each region.
- Market clearing prices in each supply and demand region.
- Receipt and delivery price in each pipeline zone.
- Capacity release market prices.
- LNG import and export volumes and prices.
- Natural gas liquids production by region and play.
For each pipeline
- Firm and interruptible tariffs by zone (pipeline segment).
- Receipt, delivery and throughput capacity by zone Pipeline fuel use fraction by zone.
- Interconnect capacities with other pipelines by zone.
- Injection and withdrawal capacities and costs in storage facilities by zone.
- Receipt capacities from suppliers by supply region and zone.
- Delivery capacities to customers by demand region and zone.
For each supply region
- Relationship between production and price in that region, e.g., a supply curve derived from gas index prices and historical well-level production, projected into the future using highly granular data from Rystad Energy and other sources.
For each customer in each region
- Relationship between demand and price in that region, e.g., demand curves derived from gas index prices, historical gas consumption by sector (residential, commercial, industrial, electric power, and compressed-gas vehicles) and statistically derived regressions.
For each storage area
- Storage injection and withdrawal capacities, costs, and connecting pipes.
- There are over 20 flexible output reports.
- Each report can be tailored and then exported to an Excel Workbook.
- Output can be integrated with powerful visualization systems such as Microsoft’s PowerBI
- GPCM contains a powerful time series graphing capability for viewing trends and patterns of gas flows and prices.
- The GDS Graphical Display System consists of several tools:
- A mapping tool for drawing pipelines against a map of North America
- Schematic drawings for each pipeline for presenting results graphically
- A map display of market point prices, basis, and spreads across North America.
- A flow map for displaying pipeline flows from any given supply basin to each census region served by that supply basin.
- A flow map for displaying the pipeline flows from each supply basin source to any given consuming census region.
GPCM is a pipeline specific network optimization model based upon the principles of market clearing economics subject to limited flow capacities. GPCM assumes that gas will flow from production to consumption regions so as to minimize transportation and storage costs while clearing markets. The resulting set of flows constitutes an “economic equilibrium” or “market clearing” solution for the natural gas industry.
On-site or virtual Basic GPCM Training Course for new licensees. Advanced Training and on-site consultations available on request. Telephone support available from 9:00 am through 5:00 pm Central Time. E-mail support is also available.
Download the technical brief for offline reading.
© 2023 RBAC, Inc. All rights reserved. GPCM and GPCM Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG are trademarks of RT7K, LLC and are used with its permission.