Geopolitics Bring Giant Changes to Natural Gas Markets
Just as AI-driven power demand and new LNG export capacity are pushing natural gas into a new growth phase, geopolitical shocks are once again reminding markets how fragile global gas flows can be.
In this edition of RBAC’s newsletter, we look at top stories in natural gas and LNG from around the world, new U.S. gas production records in 2025, the story of U.S. natural gas pipelines and creating today’s market, the Jones Act waiver for energy, and analysis of the conflict in the Middle East and how it affects the global gas market.
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Top Stories in Natural Gas and LNG from Around the World
Quick Brief - U.S. Natural Gas Production Set New Record in 2025
Yet again the United States saw new natural gas records set, this time for overall production. It grew to an average of 118.5 bcf/d for 2025 which is a 5.3 bcf/d increase from the prior year.
Permian saw the most growth by far and when combined with Appalachia and Haynesville they accounted for 67% of total production across the country.
The Appalachia region had the most production of all regions at 36.6 bcf/d, however the growth rate of production has been slowing due to limited pipeline takeaway capacity to physically transport the gas.
For 2026, we can likely expect more production records to be broken with new demand from data centers resulting in higher usage of gas for power generation. Additionally, continuously growing LNG demand will also play a factor especially with the current conflict in the Middle East changing market dynamics.
It is with tools like the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ that allow for natural gas analysts to fully understand the entirety of the North American natural gas market and how each piece of the puzzle fits into the big picture.
GPCM simulates historical and future natural gas industry activity. Historical simulations are used to help calibrate GPCM for use in forecasting future market conditions. Analysts use simulations for scenario analysis and forecasts for North American gas flows, price and basis.
It is a complete system of interrelated models for simulating gas production, pipeline and storage capacity utilization, deliveries to LDCs, utilities, and industrial consumers, as well as commodity price at points throughout the North American market. GPCM’s purpose is high-quality market analysis in support of investment decisions which help you achieve your goals and that of your company or organization.
Articles & Media
Market Focus: LNG Supply Shocks Expose Limited Market Flexibility
In this Market Focus episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, Conglin Xu, managing editor, economics, takes a look into the LNG market shock caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the sudden loss of Qatari LNG supply as the Iran war continues. Xu speaks with Edward O’Toole, director of global gas analysis, RBAC Inc., to examine how these disruptions are intensifying global supply constraints at a time when European inventories were already under pressure following a colder-than-average winter and weaker storage levels.
Read: ‘Market Focus: LNG Supply Shocks Expose Limited Market Flexibility‘
What the Data Shows Us About Building Natural Gas Pipelines
The natural gas pipeline system of the United States is one of the most robust networks of its kind in the world. How did it grow from a regional system to what it is today? And what critical events over the last century shaped its evolution?
Read: ‘What the Data Shows Us About Building Natural Gas Pipelines Part 1′
Could a President Really Waive the Jones Act?
The White House has just announced a waiver to the Jones Act, “to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market,” and further that “This action will allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to U.S. ports.”
We’ve broken down the story in a short article including what this would mean for the natural gas market and how you might approach modeling it.
Iran and Natural Gas
RBAC’s Edward O’Toole, Robert Kachmar, and Cyrus Brooks joined host Armando Cavanha to discuss key questions surrounding the evolving situation in the Middle East.
Read: ‘Iran and Natural Gas’
Hormuz Risk: Assessing the Impact of LNG Supply Disruptions
RBAC recently released a study done utilizing the G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ as part of Montel News’ Geopolitical Report for March 2026 assessing the impact that closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have on LNG supply.
Read: ‘Assessing the Impact of LNG Supply Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz’
Essential Reading
Taken from the treasure trove of the writings from our energy experts. Here read technical insights and far-sighted analysis relevant through the lens of today’s energy.
Iran’s $120B Bet on Natural Gas
In 2022 Iran released a 5-year development plan which shaped the overall strategy for the country across a variety of sectors. One of these sectors was energy, and specifically oil and gas. Iran is well known for oil production, but could it become a player in global LNG?
Food For Thought
Read some of our engaging commentary on social media and join us in the conversation.
Big Investment into U.S. Natural Gas and LNG at CERAWeek
The U.S. Department of Energy and TotalEnergies agreed to invest $1 billion into American natural gas and LNG production. These funds are being redirected from TotalEnergies’ prior investment into offshore wind.
RBAC is the market-leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems used by the energy industry and related government agencies for over two decades. The GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ is the most widely used natural gas market simulation system in North America. RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ has been instrumental in understanding evolving global gas and LNG market dynamics and is vital to fully grasp and leverage the interrelationship between the North American and global gas markets.
