From AI to LNG: What Defined 2025 and What Will Shape 2026
2026 is almost here, and the global natural gas and LNG market is entering the new year more interconnected, more strategic, and more consequential than at any point in recent history. Before turning our attention to what lies ahead, it’s worth reflecting on the forces that shaped 2025: billions of dollars committed to gas and LNG infrastructure worldwide, the rapid emergence of AI and data centers as structural demand drivers, and shifting trade policies and tariffs that reshaped global flows. To mark the transition into the new year, we’ve curated a selection of our most recent December analysis as well as most-read articles, and key insights, capturing how these trends are converging and how they will continue to impact market dynamics in the year ahead.
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Quick Brief – Winter Usage of Natural Gas in the United States
The EIA annouced new changes to their ‘Winter Fuels Outlook’ forecasts, the revisions include a colder winter which results in changes to prices notably to natural gas
The EIA’s ‘Winter Fuels Outlook’ covers their forecasts for consumption and prices that households within the United States would face for the coming Winter. The assumptions for weather are based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This year, December is expected to be slightly colder than the previous decade and overall similar weather to last Winter. With the cold brings shifts in the market, natural gas prices also have increased by over ~$1/MMBtu from October to November, settling to more than $4.00/MMBtu. This is in line with our own forecast from November of 2024 in which our analysts utilized GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ to forecast prices at Henry Hub until 2030.
"The 24Q3base forecasts prices to breach $3.00/MMBtu during the Dec – Feb heart of winter before receding toward $2.80/MMBtu in the spring, shoulder season of 2025. Continued strong gas-fired power generation demand coupled with consistent high LNG export terminal utilization, pushes prices back over $3.00/MMBtu. The supply/demand balances tighten heading into the 2025/26 winter as more LNG export capacity comes online. This puts the $4.00/MMBtu price level within reach for the 2025/26 winter while supporting prices above the $3.00/MMBtu price level."
Interested in seeing for yourself how the GPCM market simulator can augment your analysis of how weather alters demand and prices for natural gas? Click here to learn more about its capabilities and schedule a free demonstration.
December Articles & Media
Data Centers and LNG Play 3D Chess for Natural Gas
Natural gas is no longer simply a cheap and abundant commodity with nuanced seasonality. It is rapidly becoming a strategic input for the AI revolution as well as the global energy supply. And the competition for it is beginning to look like a 3D chess match.
Read: Data Centers and LNG Play 3D Chess for Natural Gas Part 1
Top Stories in 2025
Trump, Tariffs and Trade Wars, Natural Gas and LNG into China
“As the new Trump administration takes office, discussions around LNG tariffs have resurfaced due to China’s imposition of additional tariffs on U.S. LNG during his previous presidential tenure. Examining the market changes during the previous tariff period may offer valuable insights into the current situation.”
Read: Trump, Tariffs and Trade Wars, Natural Gas and LNG into China
How Will the U.S. Energy Mix Trajectory Change Under the New Trump Administration?
“In a whirlwind of Executive Orders, President Trump has once again taken the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, reversed President Biden’s pause on LNG export permit reviews, opened up Federal offshore waters for oil and gas exploration permits…”
Read: How Will the U.S. Energy Mix Trajectory Change Under the New Trump Administration?
Indonesia’s LNG Rebalance: Demand, Supply, and Global Impacts
“With LNG shipments deferred and uncertainty looming over future exports, the ripple effects across international markets could be significant. How will this disruption reshape global flows and how can the G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ help forecast the consequences?”
Read: Indonesia’s LNG Rebalance: Demand, Supply, and Global Impacts
Rethinking Energy Demand Through 2050: Review of the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025
“As energy planners and market participants look toward the future, long-term forecasts like the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) play a central role in shaping expectations and strategic planning. But what happens when the assumptions fundamental to those forecasts are vastly changed due to rapid shifts in the technology landscape, policy, and demand?”
Read: Rethinking Energy Demand Through 2050: Review of the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025
Natural Gas and the Future of Data Centers: Powering the AI Revolution Introduction
In a podcast with Armando Cavanha, Robert Kachmar and Cyrus Brooks discussed how AI and natural gas will work together to power the future.
Read: Natural Gas and the Future of Data Centers: Powering the AI Revolution Introduction
Conferences in 2025
We had the pleasure of attending and speaking at several this year to share knowledge and hear from other experts. We were also pleased to hold our own conference in Houston this year which was a resounding success.
RBAC 2025 Mid-Year Seminar Recap
On June 11th in Houston, energy industry professionals, executives and decision-makers gathered for RBAC’s Mid-Year Seminar: RBAC’s Natural Gas Outlook: Exploring North American and Global Gas Markets with RBAC. Attendees across the spectrum of energy came to increase their knowledge of the short, medium, and long-term outlooks as well as various scenarios that could potentially occur and how the market would be affected.
RBAC’s Fall Webinar: From Pipelines to Power: Navigating Natural Gas Market Uncertainty
On September 10th 2025, we held a great seminar where we presented our outlooks into natural gas and LNG as well as discussed the capabilities of our suite of market simulation tools.
Read: RBAC’s Fall Webinar: From Pipelines to Power: Navigating Natural Gas Market Uncertainty
RBAC 2025 User Conference Recap
RBAC welcomed users, partners, and industry leaders to Houston for the 2025 Gas & User Conference—three days of market intelligence, hands-on model exploration, technical deep dives, and collaborative discussions about the future of natural gas, LNG, and global energy markets.
FLAME Conference 2025 Takeaways
At the FLAME 2025 conference in Amsterdam, RBAC’s COO, James Brooks and Director Dr. Ning Lin, discussed the state of the energy transition, geopolitics and the role natural gas and LNG will play in a lower carbon future.
Oil and Gas Journal Breakfast: U.S. LNG Strategy, Global Exports, and Infrastructure Hurdles
At an OGJ-hosted energy breakfast, part of their ongoing industry dialogue series, experts including Dr. Robert Brooks of RBAC, gathered for a timely and candid exchange on the evolving challenges and opportunities in global LNG.
Read: Oil and Gas Journal Breakfast: U.S. LNG Strategy, Global Exports, and Infrastructure Hurdles
RBAC, Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. The GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ is the most widely used gas market simulation system in North America. RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for forecasting gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, risk analysis and trading.
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