Houston, Texas, June 20, 2011 – World gas spot price will be the driving factor in whether LNG exports become a viable option for excess North American gas supply, according to Dr. Robert Brooks, Founder of RBAC, Inc., addressing a conference of energy market modelers in Houston.
Alaska and British Columbia have an important distance advantage over non-Australasian LNG shipments to North Asia, especially those from Atlantic Basin and Mediterranean sources. “North Asia high-priced spot markets, which are principally supplied from Atlantic Basin and Mediterranean sources, can accommodate BC’s Kitimat LNG planned export capacity displacing some LNG supplies from the Middle East”, stated Dr. Tom Woods of RBAC.
LNG exports from Alaska would have an even greater distance advantage, but that the $20-26 billion cost of a pipeline from the North Slope to the Port of Valdez might make the project a non-starter, noted Dr. Brooks.
Gulf Coast LNG might also find a home in the Far East, but breaking into the European market would be very tough. “Some spot-driven opportunities might arise depending on the value of the Euro vs the dollar and government policies in Europe, but Gulf Coast LNG is unlikely to displace Mediterranean or other Atlantic Basin gas on a base-load basis.” declared Dr. Woods.
RBAC Inc. is a leader in the development of energy market models, most notably the GPCM® Natural Gas Forecasting System. Dr. Woods and Dr. Brooks both have 30+ years of experience in energy markets and expertise in natural gas, LNG and electricity supply and demand, marketing and transportation.