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GPCM® Natural Gas Market Forecasting System™

GPCM® is the most widely used tool for developing forecasts and scenarios for North American natural gas flows, price and basis. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas production, pipeline and storage utilization, deliveries and price at points throughout the North American gas market in support of high quality analyses and improved decision making.

GPCM offers unprecedented levels of transparency without sacrificing speed or detail. It offers numerous useful reports which are exportable to MS Excel and other industry standard formats. Sophisticated and powerful, GPCM is a modeling system which any analyst with natural gas industry knowledge can utilize to the benefit of his or her company or clients.

Market Point Price and Basis Report from the GPCM Graphical Display System (GDS)

RBAC provides GPCM licensees with a calibrated model and regular updates of its long-term forecast of monthly North American supply, demand, transportation, storage, price, and basis. Calibration is from 2006 through the current quarter. Forecasts run to 2040, but can be longer. From this foundation each licensee creates its own reference case and scenarios based on its own assumptions.

The quarterly updates of the GPCM Base Case are produced by RBAC’s experienced staff of expert researchers and energy industry veterans using the industry standard GPCM natural gas modeling system.  Each update incorporates explicit assumptions for future weather, economic growth, world oil price, and energy industry developments including new pipelines and storage projects and new demand centers such as natural gas vehicles, petrochemical facilities and gas-to-liquids plants.

Functions and capability within GPCM are regularly expanded and improved in order to anticipate the needs of the industry or rapidly respond to user requests.

Its user base consists of leading energy companies, pipelines and consultants as well as electric utilities and government agencies.

What kinds of GPCM scenarios are possible?

  • Base scenario using existing pipeline tariffs, capacities, and normal weather
  • Severe winter or mild winter demand cases
  • New import/export pipelines between the US and Canada and US and Mexico
  • Expansions or tariff changes on existing pipelines
  • Proposed pipeline projects for new or growing supply sources to markets
  • Proposed LNG import/export terminals and capacity expansions
  • Proposed gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants
  • Increases or decreases of production capacity in traditional areas
  • New storage fields or increases in existing storage capacity
  • Increasing demand in the gas-fired generation sector
  • Growing natural gas vehicle demand
  • Effect on demand of slowing or rising economic growth rate

GPCM scenario runs consist of forecasts of the following items:

  • Production and spot market prices by region and play
  • Pipeline receipts from producers by zone
  • Pipeline flows and utilization
  • Transfers between pipelines at interconnects
  • Injections, withdrawals, and working gas in storage by field
  • Deliveries by pipelines to LDC’s, utilities, and industrial customers
  • Gas supply available to each customer in each region
  • Market clearing prices in each supply and demand region
  • Receipt and delivery price in each pipeline zone
  • Capacity release market prices
  • LNG import and export volumes and prices
  • Natural gas liquids production by region and play

For additional information about GPCM® and any other RBAC product, contact James Brooks directly at (281) 506-0588 ext. 126.

© 2016 RBAC, Inc. All rights reserved.  GPCM, GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System, GPCM Viewpoints, GPCM-PMI, G2M2 and NGL-NA are trademarks of RT7K, LLC and are used with its permission.