RBAC’s G2M2® Electric Demand Model is not only capable of forecasting country-level natural gas demand in the power sector, but also provides a hint of energy mix in power generation and flexibility in fuel prices, carbon prices and energy policies. In RBAC’s “What is the Role for Natural Gas in the Energy Transition” full report, we demonstrated the G2M2 model’s capabilities in detail by introducing the method and data sources as well as presenting the results from different dimensions: global level gas demand outlook, top countries with most growth and highest demand, comparison with International Energy Agency (IEA) projections, sensitivity analysis and challenges of developing countries. The results were quite insightful.
The momentum of global-level gas demand growth is strong leading up to 2030, with a 1.9% CAGR. However, it will slow down from 2030 to 2050, with a 1.7% CAGR. Asia, the Middle East and Africa are leading this growth.
More specifically, on the country level, China, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, Thailand, and South Korea will be leading the rapid growth from 2020 to 2050.
Although higher carbon prices will result in a higher generating cost of natural gas, the impacts on coal can be larger for countries heavily relying on coal, so that the substitution effect will result in an increase in gas demand. Japan is a good example.
Germany another country heavily relying on coal and nuclear power, has announced to phase out coal by 2040 and decommission all its nuclear reactors by 2022. This will also lead to a considerable growth in renewable and natural gas demand in the power sector.
To get access to RBAC’s full “What is the Role for Natural Gas in the Energy Transition” report, please contact us at contact@rbac.com.
Meiyan Chen, RBAC, Inc.
RBAC, Inc. is a leader in building market fundamental analysis tools used by the energy industry and related government agencies for over two decades. The G2M2® Global Gas Marketing Modeling System™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage and deliveries across the global gas markets. For more information visit our website at https://www.rbac.com or call James Brooks (281) 506-0588 ext. 126.
