In April, RBAC, Inc. published “China’s LNG imports Outlook: Can the United States Capture More of the Market?” outlining the potential for the United States to capture more of the LNG market in China. Now, half a year later, we took another look at the price and volumes of pipeline gas and LNG imports into China in the first six months of 2021.
China’s pipeline gas and LNG gas imports grew faster than in 2020, with imports of 20 and 40 million tons respectively from January to June, accounting for about 60% of the total for last year. If it is assumed that half year of gas imports accounts for half of annual imports, the total imports will grow by up to 20% in 2021. However, in previous years due to increased gas consumptions in the winter for heating, natural gas demand tends to be greater in the second half of the year, which means the growth rate could reach 25%.
When it comes to prices, LNG import prices peaked this past February due to extreme weather around the world. In the Spring prices fell back to a normal range , but prices gradually rose after May leading into the summer. LNG prices during the summer have been relatively low in the past, while this year’s growth trend has been quite strong. Compared to LNG, pipeline gas has been relatively cheaper and more stable to help satisfy China’s demand.
The growth of China’s natural gas imports may be caused by the rapid recovery of China’s domestic industry in the post-Epidemic period, which enables the natural gas industry to grow steadily and rapidly, and the accelerated energy transition in China by proposing the concept of Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality. Whatever the conclusion, the global LNG market will be very boisterous in this winter, and we will continue to follow and keep you posted.
RBAC, Inc. is a leader in building market fundamental analysis tools used by the energy industry and related government agencies for over two decades. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets. For more information visit our website at http://www.rbac.com.