G2M2 Versus the Forward Curve
Everyday market participants, through their collective buying and selling of natural gas futures, help determine the forward curve settlement prices. Each participant has their own opinion of what the “fair market value” of natural gas is or should be. We all know opinions are often biased by our natural position – are we a producer […]
From Guesswork to Strategy: Why Energy Modeling Is Mission-Critical
In the energy world, few decisions are small. An asset acquisition. A pipeline expansion. A long-term LNG contract. Even a hedging strategy or a power generation asset planning decision can lock in costs—or opportunity—for years to come. With the weight of these choices, topflight executives count on advanced methods to guide billion-dollar strategies. Figure 1 […]
Rethinking Energy Demand Through 2050: Review of the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025
What Happens If the AEO 2025 Basic Assumptions Get Significantly Altered? As energy planners and market participants look toward the future, long-term forecasts like the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) play a central role in shaping expectations and strategic planning. But what happens when the assumptions fundamental to those forecasts are […]
Indonesia’s LNG Rebalance: Demand, Supply, and Global Impacts
When Export Desires Yield to Domestic Necessities Indonesia, long regarded as a dependable player in the global LNG market, is now making waves for a different reason. In 2024, the country diverted roughly 50 LNG cargoes—about 17% of its expected exports—for domestic use due to surging internal demand and declining gas production. This strategic redirection […]
Alaska: New Frontiers in LNG
The Last Frontier and its abundance of energy resources is once again in the spotlight garnering interest from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for investment into its natural gas infrastructure. Alaska has a wealth of natural gas with 35 tcf of proven reserves on the North Slope and another 200 tcf potentially recoverable. The famous […]
Who Will Benefit from the U.S.-China LNG Trade Disruption?
On February 4th, 2025, China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. LNG. In our previous article we looked at historical LNG trade between these two countries and how the usage of tariffs between September 2018 and March 2020 affected the market. So, with 20/20 vision towards historical data and a look ahead to possible future outcomes with […]
Tariff Terror
It’s only February, and already this year has experienced a whirlwind of changes, particularly for the energy industry. Starting with the weather, a polar vortex-esque Winter Storm named “Demi” blasted most of the U.S., dumping record breaking snow in some southern regions, including the Florida Panhandle, then blanketed the northern United States with sub-zero temperatures. […]
Iran’s $120B Bet on Natural Gas
Can Iran Catch Up in the Race to Dominate the World’s Largest Gas Field? In 2022 Iran released a 5-year development plan which shaped the overall strategy for the country across a variety of sectors. One of these sectors was energy, and specifically oil and gas. Taking advantage of some of the largest gas fields […]
How Will the U.S. Energy Mix Trajectory Change Under the New Trump Administration?
Immediate Executive Action on Energy In less than a week, the new Trump Administration has drastically changed the trajectory of the energy industry. Although not unexpected, as Trump has been very outspoken about his intentions on the campaign trail, these changes have been met with the full gamut of reactions from praise to complete melt […]
Natural Gas Price Predictions for 2025: A Bullish or Bearish Market?
Natural Gas Market Insights from RBAC’s 24Q3base Release How Confident Are You? As we head into the 2024/25 winter season, the natural gas market appears to be staring down the barrel of yet another mild winter and loose Supply/Demand (SnD) balances. The El Niño of yesteryear is now replaced by a La Niña and although […]
