Dr. Robert Brooks will speak at America’s Natural Gas conference sponsored by Hart Energy, presenting “Weather and Whether Russia,” the gas outlook and the future of Europe.
In September 2021 we saw soaring natural gas prices, and steep prices were not expected to decline till April 2022, yet the February start of the war in Ukraine changed that forecast. Prices are hugely elevated and will remain so for a long time.
RBAC did an analysis in January 2022 of the possibility of a total shut-off of Russian gas. One which no one expected to happen, perhaps even Putin himself. Yet now it has.
Dr. Brooks spoke at the World Gas Conference in Daegu, Korea in May to a packed crowd and was interviewed by the Times of Korea where he described a “methodology for forecasting a range of gas prices around the world in different demand scenarios and how they may change.” Gas prices are largely dependent on demand driven by weather—especially in winter months.
But to some extent, events have overtaken that analysis and a major update has been required. We’re referring to, of course, the European response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s counter-response to Europe.
- Has geo-politics overwhelmed weather as the primary determinant of natural gas prices in Europe?
- Has Russia used all its leverage, or can it do even more?
- Will Russia and Europe ever resume “normal” relations regarding natural gas or does Europe’s decarbonization plans make renormalization irrelevant?
Using RBAC’s GPCM and G2M2 market simulator tools, Dr. Brooks will explore these issues and show where gas prices could have gone, and where they likely will go under a variety of scenarios.
See Dr. Brooks at Hart Energy’s America’s Natural Gas conference in Houston, September 27th, 2022.
For more information click here: https://www.hartenergyconferences.com/americas-natural-gas
Dr. Robert Brooks. PhD, is the Founder of RBAC Inc. He is an applied mathematician, energy economist, and software systems designer with over thirty-five years of experience in developing decision support systems for business and government. For RBAC, Dr. Brooks developed the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™, the first pipeline-specific monthly, long-term model of the entire North American natural gas transportation and storage system. Beginning in 2015 Dr. Brooks successfully extended these concepts to global natural gas and LNG in RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™.