Capturing Intelligence on The Next Phase of Natural Gas Growth
North American natural gas markets are facing a major balancing act with record-breaking summer peak loads across PJM, ERCOT, and SWPP. At the same time, booming power consumption from the artificial intelligence sector and surging export capacity are creating demand pulls to expand regional pipelines at extraordinary speed.
Coupled with geopolitical challenges at the Strait of Hormuz, this environment constitutes quite a challenge to navigate, along with the usual supply constraints, pipeline bottlenecks, and shifting regional basis we all track.
In this edition of the RBAC Newsletter, we unpack critical North American dynamics, new power demand records in the United States, how natural gas traders can utilize GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™, and how the natural gas market responds to new sources of demand. These stories provide additional context for understanding where the market may be headed next.
And a special note for those who are (or could be) in Houston: Join us on November 18th in Houston’s Galleria district, where we will present our outlook for regional and global markets.
Let’s dive in.
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Announcements
RBAC’s Fall Seminar: LNG Growth, Power Demand, Infrastructure and a Shifting Gas Market Exploring North American and Global Markets
On November 18th, energy industry professionals, executives, and decision-makers will gather in Houston’s iconic Galleria district for a seminar focused on RBAC’s 26Q3 outlook for the natural gas and LNG markets.
Attendees will gain insights into the short, medium, and long-term outlook for natural gas, explore potential market scenarios, and learn how these scenarios could impact the market through analysis using the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ and G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain valuable insights into the future of natural gas and LNG markets.
Top Stories in Natural Gas and LNG from Around the World
Quick Brief – U.S. Regional Transmission Organizations Set Peak Load Records
PJM, ERCOT, and SWPP all set new records for peak hourly demand this summer. PJM peaked at 162.6 GW, ERCOT at 91.1 GW, and SWPP at 58 GW.
Some of the other ISOs came close to setting new records within a few percent.
With these new records and near records being set in this Summer, could this trend continue this Winter?
It is with tools like the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ that allow for natural gas analysts to fully understand the entirety of the North American natural gas market and how each piece of the puzzle fits into the big picture.
GPCM simulates historical and future natural gas industry activity. Historical simulations are used to help calibrate GPCM for use in forecasting future market conditions. Analysts use simulations for scenario analysis and forecasts for North American gas flows, price and basis.
It is a complete system of interrelated models for simulating gas production, pipeline and storage capacity utilization, deliveries to LDCs, utilities, and industrial consumers, as well as commodity price at points throughout the North American market. GPCM’s purpose is high-quality market analysis in support of investment decisions which help you achieve your goals and that of your company or organization.
Articles & Media
How Traders (and Others) Could Use GPCM
How can the GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ be used to support natural gas traders and other market participants? Cyrus Brooks looks back on the winter of 2013–2014 in New England to show how a comprehensive look at the physical gas market through GPCM can show a plethora of details when looking into a cold winter scenario.
Where the Natural Gas Market Gets Tight — and So What?
What happens when you add 4.5 Bcf/d of pipeline capacity to an already crowded natural gas network?
A new pipeline doesn’t just move more natural gas. It changes where gas flows, what producers receive, which pipelines compete for supply, and what consumers pay — and sometimes hundreds of miles away.
Read: Where the Natural Gas Market Gets Tight — and So What?
Essential Reading
Taken from the treasure trove of the writings from our energy experts. Here read technical insights and far-sighted analysis relevant through the lens of today’s energy.
What Would Happen if Power of Siberia 2 Came Online Earlier than Expected?
If Power of Siberia 2 enters service earlier than expected, the largest impact may not be the pipeline volume itself, but how that volume changes China’s next marginal gas purchase — plus, how many LNG cargoes will be produced or available to China and where will those LNG cargoes eventually go that China no longer needs?
Read: What Would Happen if Power of Siberia 2 Came Online Earlier than Expected?
RBAC is the market-leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems used by the energy industry and related government agencies for over two decades. The GPCM® Market Simulator for North American Gas and LNG™ is the most widely used natural gas market simulation system in North America. RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ has been instrumental in understanding evolving global gas and LNG market dynamics and is vital to fully grasp and leverage the interrelationship between the North American and global gas markets.
